U.S. Treasury Notes Increase After Report Shows Slowdown in Job Growth

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose after the government said job growth slowed last month, overcoming a temporary slide sparked by a separate report that fanned inflation concerns when prices paid by manufacturers jumped.

>>do you understand why the U.S. treasury notes rise and fall in relation to the news?

The 4 percent note due in February 2015 rose about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 96 13/32 as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.45 percent. The yield fell 15 basis points this week, the most since August.

>>i do not understand the 96 13/32 figure. can someone please explain it to me? so if the yield falls, does the price increase?

Speculative short positions, or bets prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by a record 219,385 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade as of March 22. As of March 29, the net short position fell to just 2 percent to 214,230 contracts. Short positions are where an investor sells borrowed securities in the hope of buying them back at a profit when the price falls.
interest rate is expected to be between 3.25% to 3.5% at the end of the year, well, at least that the expert analysis of merill lynch and goldman respectively. 9 months and 50 to 75 basis points to go before that target is to be met.
i would say that the interest rate will be unchanged in the next 2-3 months. and my analysis is that the reason for the increased in price paid my manufacturers is most probably due to higher oil prices and i am quite sure that oil prices will hit a new high in the next few weeks, this will definately up the price paid index. technically, the feds should increase interest rates to curb inflation. but i don't see any likely increase in job wages nor significant changes in job growth till june that will justify/ support/ complement the rise in interest rate. therefore, my analysis is that interest rate will be unchange till june. and we'll most probably see interest rate hike from july onwards. well, at least that's my bet.

so my bet is to short 3 months treasury bills.